We have been noting for some months that the likes of the Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) needed to show more upbeat outturns, and relatively soon, to be consistent with our economic forecasts.
One always wonders how much a material monthly movement in one direction or the other can be believed as an indicator of trend. Only time will tell if December’s PMI strength can be maintained.
The PMI is positive for Q4 GDP calculations and points to good momentum heading into the New Year. At face value, it suggests upside risk to the positive view we already have for manufacturing and near-term GDP growth forecasts.
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