13 Jun 2025

BNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index - May 2025

Manufacturing Snapshot

Back in the red

The Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) dropped sharply from 53.3 to 47.5 in May. After four consecutive months in expansion, the PMI has steeply fallen back below the breakeven 50 mark.

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All below average

Weakness in May was broad-based, with all the PMI subindexes declining and below their historical averages. Of some concern, the PMI new orders index is particularly weak at 45.3.

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Headwinds into Q2

Core manufacturing sales volumes (excluding meat and dairy) increased 1.4% q/q in Q1 2025. This was consistent with earlier PMI readings, which averaged 52.9 in Q1.

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Tariff uncertainty ongoing

The front-loading of purchases ahead of tariffs has supported global manufacturing activity. However, offshore survey indicators suggest that manufacturing activity weakened in May.

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